🔗 Share this article

As dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained stuck in a enclosed conference room, unaware whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in strained discussions, with scores ministers representing multiple blocs of countries ranging from the poorest nations to the richest economies.

Tempers were short, the air thick as sweaty delegates acknowledged the sobering reality: they would not reach a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit hovered near the brink of abject failure.

The sticking point: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for well over a century, the greenhouse gases produced by burning fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

Nevertheless, during more than three decades of yearly climate meetings, the urgent need to stop fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a agreement made two years ago at the Dubai climate summit to "shift from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Arab Group, Russia, and multiple other countries were resolved this would not occur another time.

Increasing pressure for change

At the same time, a increasing coalition of countries were just as committed that advancement on this issue was vitally needed. They had created a plan that was gathering expanding support and made it apparent they were willing to stand their ground.

Emerging economies strongly sought to make progress on securing financial assistance to help them manage the increasingly severe impacts of environmental crises.

Breaking point

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were willing to leave and cause breakdown. "The situation was precarious for us," stated one government representative. "I considered to walk away."

The pivotal moment occurred through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, principal delegates separated from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the lead Saudi negotiator. They encouraged wording that would obliquely recognise the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unexpected agreement

Instead of explicitly referencing fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the UAE consensus". After consideration, the Saudi delegation unexpectedly approved the wording.

Participants collapsed into relief. Applause rang out. The deal was completed.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took a modest advance towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a uncertain, inadequate step that will barely interrupt the climate's continued progression towards crisis. But nevertheless a important shift from absolute paralysis.

Key elements of the agreement

• In addition to the oblique commitment in the formal agreement, countries will begin work a framework to phase out fossil fuels
• This will be mostly a voluntary initiative led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to remain below the 1.5C limit was similarly postponed to next year
• Developing countries achieved a significant expansion to $120bn of regular financial support to help them manage the impacts of extreme weather
• This amount will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in polluting businesses transition to the clean economy

Mixed reactions

As the world approaches the brink of climate "critical thresholds" that could eliminate habitats and force whole regions into crisis, the agreement was not the "major breakthrough" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some baby steps in the right direction, but given the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has fallen short of the occasion," stated one environmental analyst.

This imperfect deal might have been all that was possible, given the international tensions – including a Washington administration who ignored the talks and remains committed to oil and coal, the growing influence of nationalist politics, continuing wars in multiple regions, extreme measures of inequality, and global economic uncertainty.

"Major polluters – the fossil fuel giants – were at last in the crosshairs at these negotiations," notes one policy convener. "We have crossed a threshold on that. The platform is open. Now we must turn it into a genuine solution to a more secure planet."

Significant divisions revealed

Even as nations were able to welcome the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted deep fissures in the primary worldwide framework for addressing the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are consensus-based, and in a time of international tensions, unanimity is increasingly difficult to reach," observed one international diplomat. "It would be dishonest to claim that Cop30 has provided all that is needed. The gap between present circumstances and what research requires remains alarmingly large."

If the world is to avoid the most severe impacts of climate crisis, the international negotiations alone will not be nearly enough.