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Returning in the start of the year, amid the president’s campaign vows to end the conflict in Ukraine “within 24 hours” still fresh in minds, there was real unease in Moscow over the US leader’s plans. After Mr. Trump suggested that significant levels of Tariffs, Tariffs, and Restrictions” on Russia might be required, one prominent hawkish Moscow analyst remarked: “It’s better to get ready for the worst. Soon, we’ll reflect on the previous term with nostalgia, like a thaw.”

Unfulfilled Threats and Failed Opportunities

How mistaken was that view? From then, the American leader has repeatedly spoken the talk without coming close to following the walk. By May, when Vladimir Putin turned down a 30-day truce, and peace talks in Turkey stalled, a “bone-crushing US sanctions package did not to appear. An 8 August cut-off for Mr Putin to agree to a ceasefire inexplicably morphed into a lavish welcome in Alaska, where Mr Trump praised a leader wanted for war crimes as he stepped off from his plane. The “severe consequences” warned of by Mr Trump if the Alaska talks did not lead to peace never happened.

Emboldened Actions and Western Vulnerabilities

Emboldened, Mr Putin has thus continued to prosecute his war objectives in Ukraine, and test for western weaknesses. Last week’s intrusion of Russian drones into Polish territory exposed inadequate Nato planning, as F-35 and F-16 fighter jets were hastily scrambled to counter low-cost kamikaze devices that cost around $ten thousand each to produce. It also sent a warning of possible intensification in the event of any future “deterrence force” deploying European troops on Ukrainian soil. Such provocation called for a robust and unified response, applying the kind of pressure on the Kremlin which Mr Trump has so far refused to countenance. Instead the US president seems, once again, to prefer pressuring his European allies to targeting Mr Putin. In a statement which reeked of insincerity, Mr Trump stated over the weekend that the US was “ready” to impose stricter sanctions on Russia, but only if certain improbable conditions were met.

Unrealistic Demands and Trade Pressures

Eyeing a significant economic gain, Washington is demanding that the EU must increase its imports of US LNG at a rate that analysts consider undoable. Other stipulations include the imposition by the EU of 50%-100% tariffs on Russia’s most important ally, China, and an end to all imports of Russian oil by Nato members. This includes Turkey, which has declined to sanction Moscow, imports 57% of its oil from Russia, and lies outside the EU.

Observers looking on the bright side in Brussels believe that Mr Trump’s pressure may convince pro-Trump governments in Hungary and Slovakia to end their deep dependence on Russian energy imports. That is extremely unlikely to happen, as Mr Trump and his advisers must know. Nor can the EU afford to risk the kind of economic response from Beijing that caused Mr Trump himself to retreat from a full-blown trade war recently.

Ominous Developments and Absence of Action

Throughout this week’s state visit, it will be Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to try to press Mr Trump down on concrete action. But from the unproductive Alaska talks to his latest diversionary tactics with the EU, Mr Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Last week’s drone incursion in Poland represented an worrying upping of the ante. Ukraine’s prospects, and wider European security interests, are being steadily undermined by a president who, in this context, barks but never bites.