🔗 Share this article Can Scotland at last break the long-standing losing streak? New Zealand implemented three modifications to the team that beat the Irish team Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh When: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes. In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history. Key Absences Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship. Replacement Concerns Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to New Zealand in the previous encounter Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity. In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks. Conclusion Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.